By Alex Hammer
Is Ron Paul's foreign policy brilliant, or is it naive?
You'll have to read this piece to find out.
Ron Paul believes that our aggressiveness in the world could invite an aggressive response in return. There is some truth to this. Think about the people in your own lives. The ones that are nice to you engender warmer feelings than the ones who are harsh or wish you harm.
The law of reciprocity indicates that we wish to treat people as they treat us.
But what about "no good deed goes unpunished?"
Mitt Romney in the debate insightfully indicated that we can't have a foreign policy of "pretty please"
Ron Paul on Jay Leno recently indicated his belief that Michelle Bachmann hates Muslims.
She may or she may not.
Certainly she and Paul tussled onstage in regard to who is making the world safer and who is not.
What if they're each right?
But each wrong.
Life has a bit of paradox to it. Yes it is true that aggressive actions can elicit aggressive responses. And yes it is also true that weakness also invites attack.
If you doubt the latter think of the law of the jungle, predator versus prey.
And if you doubt the former then you would need to deny that humans are also social, and that cooperation has evolved as a critical tool for survival.
Think economic trade.
Man (and woman) has a Darwinistic nature but, alas, evolutionary forces are social as well as physical. Whether or not you believe in Darwin, or a force that operates beyond and allows evolutionary forces, you are likely to agree that we each have adaptive capabilities that allow us to navigate our way in the world and survive.
And we have instinct, including base instincts as well.
Ron Paul's policies may lay us on a course of appeasement that could make the horrors of World War II look like child's play. These same actions by President Paul might stop the economic bleeding from wars we cannot afford (in money and beyond) and strengthen our economy by shifting our resources to home.
Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul are similar in that they are polar opposites in their foreign policy views. They each represent the extremes.
Mitt Romney is probably closer to Bachman's foreign policy views because Ron Paul tends to stand alone.
Paul is an independent thinker who seems basically immune from common groupthink, and that allows Paul to have a consistency that certainly Romney and many others lack.
Consistency is far preferable to flip-floppers, especially in the position of leader of the free world (although in Paul's case that term would need to be amended)
But it is also famously said that "a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds".
In politics there are idealogues and there are politicians. Idealogues are not necessarily principled if their idealogies are skewed but they are principled in that their views stem from core beliefs. Politicians also have a solid core, but it is not based upon ideas, it is based upon survival.
So they each are consistent in their own very different ways.
Is Ron Paul's foreign policy brilliant or naive?
Your answer to that may say as much about you as it does about candidate Paul.
Tuesday
Ron Paul's foreign policy - Brilliant or naive?
Sunday
Who will win the Republican 2012 Nomination for President?
By Alex Hammer
Odds on the field:
Mitt Romney: Odds for nomination: 5-2
The front runner should probably have better odds. He's a solid candidate, generally recognized as the most knowledgeable and unflappable in the field. One can make a reasonably strong argument that he has the best qualifications in regard to his experience.
As everyone knows what could well keep Romney from winning the nomination is support coalescing around another candidate. He is extremely vulnerable to this as no matter how strong his performance he has to date had a very low ceiling of support of 22% - 25%. While Republicans may eventually line up behind him later on, the lack of higher support for another candidate is the result of continual unforced errors if not self-sabotage by his closest rivals, one after the other.
Conservatives prefer not to vote for Romney and there are a great deal of them in the party. But they also hate to lose the election to President Obama as well.
Herman Cain: Odds for nomination 7-1
Most people seem to feel that Herman Cain is not qualified (nor prepared) to be President, but enough Republican voters simply may not care.
Cain has one critical factor working for him. On a personal level people like him, and whether it should be this way or not likability can be a critical factor in voting. Cain has been injured by the sexual harassment allegations, especially with women, but to date this issue doesn't appear to be terminal to his campaign. Worse politically may be his foreign policy gaffes and obvious lack of knowledge in this area. But Cain is a quick learner and the role of foreign policy, unless a major event interjects, is far secondary in an environment of such domestic economic challenge.
Newt Gingrich: Odds for nomination 7-1
Clearly has the intellect (and sufficient experience) to be President but lacks the temperament. Most harmful for Gingrich's chances are the baggage, both policy and personal. Gingrich's numbers are surging and his innovative and articulate thinking are major pluses that will likely make him a factor deep into the race.
Ron Paul: Odds for nomination 7-1
Ron Paul? Ron Paul is not likely to be the nominee but he is quite likely to be one of the last candidates standing. Why is that? One significant factor is that the solidness of Paul's support from his supporters appears, as well documented, to be the strongest (rabid?) of any candidate. One reason for this is that he is so different from any of the other candidates. If you are a conservative you have several choices to consider, and the same is true if you are economically more moderate. But if you are a libertarian? You wouldn't consider anybody else in the field.
Ron Paul is able to raise significant money so he is not dependent upon the media to fuel his campaign. This is very significant. Some polling indicates that Paul is poised, additionally, to do very well in Iowa.
Limiting Paul is that he is not the second or even third choice of most voters. Many consider him too extreme.
Michelle Bachmann: Odds for nomination 10-1
Bachmann has been high in the polls at one time and could return. She is extremely knowledgeable and a forceful and effective presenter. Bachmann is limited by her lack of experience and her propensity for apparent misstatement or mistakes. Some of her positions may also be too far right for many voters.
Following Hillary Clinton's historic run not much has been made of Bachmann's gender, but I think this is a factor that could help her candidacy.
Rick Perry: Odds for nomination 12 -1
Certainly Perry has been too often horrendous in the debates. Personally, I have an aversion to some Perry factors, including the number of people that have been executed in Texas during his tenure.
Perry has, without a doubt, substantial experience, and a phenomenal political history. He appears to be over his head in the Presidential contest (for one thing, unlike Romney, he hasn't had the time necessary to adequately prepare) but he could come back to competitive status.
Jon Huntsman: Odds for nomination 12-1
Hasn't gained traction but he could as the field narrows. Presents very well and is highly experienced and knowledgeable. Doesn't seem to rub voters the wrong way as do some of the other candidates at times.
Rick Santorum: Odds for nomination 50-1
Doesn't have much support but unlike Huntsman Santorum, whose appeal is arguably to a much narrower slice of the party, doesn't seem to have a route to get there. Likely to be one of the very first out of the race.
Brokered Convention: Odds for nomination 50-1
Never say never. Wouldn't that be fun?
Thursday
Romney Reported To Endorse McCain - Former Rival Will Cede Delegates To McCain
Excerpt:
"Mitt Romney, John McCain's former chief rival for the Republican presidential nomination, will endorse the Arizona senator, officials familiar with the decision said Thursday."
http://www.wmtw.com/politics/15302732/detail.html?treets=port&tml=port_natlbreak&ts=T&tmi=port_natlbreak_1_12460302142008
Wednesday
Washington Post - The 2007 Pinocchio Awards
Excerpt:
"1. "I saw my father march with Martin Luther King"--Mitt Romney, "Faith in America" address, December 6, 2007."
Thursday
Romney Expected to End Presidential Bid
Romney Expected to End Presidential Bid
Excerpt:
""If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror," Romney will say at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington."
http://news.aol.com/elections/story/_a/romney-expected-to-end-presidential-bid/20080207105109990001?ncid=NWS00010000000001
Tuesday
Rush Limbaugh endorses Mitt Romney
Excerpt:
"Levin, Hannity, Ingraham and now Nobel nominee Rush Limbaugh (membership req’d): Big talk radio swings unanimously for Mitt Romney. Rush makes several solid points that you’ve heard before, mostly regarding how McCain represents the GOP’s national security wing, Huckabee represents its social conservative wing, and Ron Paul represents the economic conservative wing, but Romney is the one candidate who represents all three by himself. Romney is a late convert to all three, which as I wrote the other day explains why conservatives have taken so long to warm up to him."
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/02/05/rush-limbaugh-endorses-mitt-romney/
Thursday
A Face-Off, Not Necessarily Televised - The New York Times
A Face-Off, Not Necessarily Televised - The New York Times
Excerpt:
"John McCain is doing something that is very much in character with the way he has run his political life, but that is also a bow to the fact that he does not have the financial resources of Mitt Romney. He is relying on the so-called free media — interviews, news conferences and rallies — to press his message. There will be some television advertising, his aides said, but it will be modest."
Romney Spokesperson Confirms it: Mitt Hasn't Bought Any TV Ad Time In Any Feb. 5th State
Romney Spokesperson Confirms it: Mitt Hasn't Bought Any TV Ad Time In Any Feb. 5th State
Excerpt:
"With five days to go until Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney's spokesperson is confirming that the Romney campaign has bought exactly zero TV ad time in any of the states that vote on Feb. 5....
Late Update: A Romney campaign official tells me that the campaign will be purchasing ad time today, though the official declined to specify how much and where."
Tuesday
Crist endorsement is surprising, risky - Last-minute backing of McCain leaves Giuliani camp fuming
Crist endorsement is surprising, risky - Last-minute backing of McCain leaves Giuliani camp fuming.
Excerpt:
"There may be no move Crist has made as governor that stunned so many friends and political insiders as his last-minute endorsement of McCain on Saturday.
The campaigns of Mitt Romney, Giuliani and, yes, McCain were convinced until the end that Crist would remain neutral.
Keeping Crist on the sidelines, in fact, had been the main goal of the Romney campaign, which had been talking to LeMieux about playing a senior role in that campaign."
http://www.sptimes.com/2008/01/28/news_pf/State/Crist_endorsement_is_.shtml
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain Lead Widens As Primary Election Day Dawns in Florida - Giuliani, Huckabee tied in battle for distant third place
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain Lead Widens As Primary Election Day Dawns in Florida -
Giuliani, Huckabee tied in battle for distant third place
Excerpt:
"Arizona Sen. John McCain’s lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is growing wider as the Republican campaign ends and Election Day dawns, the results of a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby telephone two-day tracking poll shows.
McCain now has 35% support in Florida and stands four points ahead of Romney. The poll, which surveyed 941 likely Republican voters in Florida on Jan. 27-28, 2008, carries a margin for error of +/-3.3 percentage points."
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1440
McCain Ads Attack Romney - Newsweek
McCain Ads Attack Romney - Newsweek - Factcheck.org - New Web and radio ads by the Arizona senator lack context.
Excerpt:
"On the eve of the crucial Florida GOP primary, John McCain is attacking Mitt Romney with some out-of-context or misleading statements on radio and the Internet:"
Primary Tally So Far: 160,000 TV Spots and $141M in Spending - And Be Prepared for the Ron Paul Onslaught
Primary Tally So Far: 160,000 TV Spots and $141M in Spending - And Be Prepared for the Ron Paul Onslaught
Excerpt:
"To recap the ad wars: So far we have tracked over 160,000 TV spots at an estimated cost of $141 million by candidates and groups. Leading the charge is Mitt Romney's campaign with over 35,000 airings and $30 million worth of TV ads in the early states. Catching up in a hurry are Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, whose campaigns have spent close to $20 million apiece. Issue groups have used TV ads mainly to promote policy agendas such as education, healthcare and retirement security with only a handful of them running TV ads attacking or supporting candidates in the race. "
http://adage.com/campaigntrail/article?article_id=123394
Thursday
Romney's Wallet Keeps Him in the Race - Wall Street Journal
Romney's Wallet Keeps Him in the Race - Wall Street Journal
Excerpt:
"Mitt Romney lost three of the first five big Republican contests and lags behind in most major state and national polls. Yet he is still widely seen as a credible contender for the nomination thanks mainly to one trait: his wallet.
A senior aide to Mr. Romney says the millionaire investor plans to spend as much as $40 million in the campaign. Mr. Romney spent $17.4 million of his own money on his campaign through the third quarter of last year, according to the Federal Election Commission."
Saturday
More Than A Dozen Lobbyists Closely Associated With Mitt Romney Campaign
More Than A Dozen Lobbyists Closely Associated With Mitt Romney Campaign
Excerpt:
"Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney recently got into a highly publicized shouting match with an AP reporter about whether a lobbyist “runs” his campaign — but the Boston Herald reports that if lobbyists don’t “run” Romney’s campaign, more than a dozen lobbyists raise money for his campaign and others advise his campaign:"
http://themoderatevoice.com/media/journalism/17175/more-than-a-dozen-lobbyists-closely-associated-with-mitt-romney-campaign/
Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses, Report Says
Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses, Report Says - Dems Share Stage In Nev.; Republicans Focus On S.C.
Excerpt:
"Republican Mitt Romney won Nevada's caucuses Saturday, according to a report from The Associated Press.
Romney's projected victory came as John McCain and Mike Huckabee dueled in the South Carolina primary, a campaign doubleheader likely to winnow the crowded field of presidential rivals."
http://www.wmtw.com/politics/15090596/detail.html?treets=port&tml=port_natlbreak&ts=T&tmi=port_natlbreak_1_12200301192008
Thursday
Romney skips S.C., bets on Nevada
Romney skips S.C., bets on Nevada
"Just a day after his big win in Michigan, Mitt Romney ceded South Carolina to his rivals.
“This is a state I’d expect that Sen. [John] McCain has pretty well wrapped up,” Romney told reporters at the Sun City Hilton Head Retirement Center in Bluffton. “It would be an enormous surprise if he were unable to win here.”"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7940.html
Wednesday
ROMNEY WINS BIG IN MICHIGAN; HUCKABEE WANTS CONSTITUTION AMENDED TO "GOD'S STANDARDS"; DEMS DEBATE; CONGRESSMAN BAKER RESIGNS. - Politics1.com
ROMNEY WINS BIG IN MICHIGAN; HUCKABEE WANTS CONSTITUTION AMENDED TO "GOD'S STANDARDS"; DEMS DEBATE; CONGRESSMAN BAKER RESIGNS. - Politics1.com
Excerpt:
"Voters in Michigan breathed new life into Mitt Romney's campaign on Tuesday, solidly restoring him to the first tier of national frontrunners for the nomination. John McCain made a strong push, hoping the solid support of Independents could help him win the state he won in the 2000."
http://www.politics1.com/ - 1/16/08
MICHIGAN: Final results from Tuesday's primary election
MICHIGAN: Final results from Tuesday's primary election
Excerpt:
"Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney took 39 percent of the vote and prevailed in the Michigan Republican primary on Tuesday, beating out rival Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who earned 30 percent.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., was the choice of 55 percent of Democrats statewide in a primary where rivals Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., were not on the ballot. Some 40 percent of Michigan voters in the Democratic primary went uncommitted."
http://www.dailypressandargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/NEWS01/80116006
Monday
Video - Jack Welch: Romney Best Chief Executive
Video - Jack Welch: Romney Best Chief Executive
"About This Video
Added: January 14, 2008
Jack Welch discusses the 2008 presidential race on MSNBC's "Morning Joe.""
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM0wqejqqtk
Florida A Four-Way Tie: Rasmussen
Florida A Four-Way Tie: Rasmussen
Excerpt:
"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds four candidates essentially tied for the lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. It’s McCain 19%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, and Huckabee 17%. Fred Thompson is a few points off the pace at 11% while Ron Paul is a distant sixth with support from 5% of Likely Primary Voters."
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/016622.php
